india and pakistan how real is the risk of nuclear war 2025
In the most recent clash between India and Pakistan, the situation unfolded without explicit ultimatums or the threat of nuclear escalation.
Despite this, the sequence of military responses, subtle diplomatic signals, and rapid international intervention served as a stark reminder of the ever-present risks in the region. Though the conflict did not reach the brink of nuclear confrontation, it highlighted how quickly such tensions can bring that possibility into focus.
National Command Authority (NCA)
Researchers have long studied how quickly regional tensions can escalate. In a 2019 paper, an international team of scientists presented a hypothetical situation in which a terrorist attack on India’s parliament in 2025 sparks a nuclear conflict with Pakistan.
Now, six years later, a real-life confrontation-though diffused by a US-mediated truce over the weekend-has reignited concerns over the potential for all-out war. It also serves as a stark reminder of the region’s delicate stability.
As tensions grew, Pakistan responded with a mix of actions, launching military strikes while also convening a meeting of its National Command Authority (NCA)-the body responsible for overseeing the country’s nuclear arsenal. This move, seen by some as a strategic signal highlighting its nuclear capabilities, remains open to interpretation-whether it was meant as a symbolic gesture, a calculated warning, or a genuine readiness alert is unclear.
This occurred after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio allegedly stepped in to help ease tensions.
President Trump later claimed that U.S. efforts went beyond just brokering a ceasefire, asserting that they helped prevent a “nuclear conflict.” Meanwhile, in a national address on Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that India “will not bow to nuclear threats” and upholds a zero-tolerance stance on nuclear coercion.
“Any terrorist sanctuary operating under this guise will be met with precise and forceful action,” Modi stated.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that both India and Pakistan each possess roughly 170 nuclear warheads. As of January 2024, SIPRI reported that the global nuclear stockpile totals around 12,121 warheads. Of these, about 9,585 are maintained in active military stockpiles, with 3,904 currently deployed-an increase of 60 from the previous year. Significantly, the United States and Russia together control more than 8,000 of these weapons.
Both India and Pakistan rely heavily on their land-based missile forces for the bulk of their deployed nuclear arsenals, although both nations are progressing toward complete nuclear triads, which would enable them to launch nuclear strikes from land, air, and sea. This assessment comes from Christopher Clary, a security expert at the University at Albany in the United States.
India and Pakistan
Clary told the BBC that India probably has a more developed air-based nuclear capability than Pakistan. Although there is limited information about Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear capabilities, it is reasonable to infer that India’s naval nuclear forces are more advanced, considering the substantial investments India has made. made in nuclear-powered submarines-an area where Pakistan has spent far less time or resources.”
Since conducting its first nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan has not formally articulated an official nuclear doctrine, Clary noted, highlighting a key difference in the nuclear strategies of the two nations.
In contrast, India established a no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy following its nuclear tests in 1998. However, this commitment has shown signs of potential adjustment. In 2003, india and pakistan expanded the scope of its nuclear doctrine, stating it could use nuclear weapons in retaliation for chemical or biological attacks-effectively introducing a conditional first-use option.
Minister Manohar Parrikar
This policy faced further scrutiny in 2016 when then-Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar suggested that india and pakistan should not feel strictly “bound” by the NFU principle, sparking debate over the long-term consistency of this stance. Parrikar later clarified that this reflected his personal views, not the official position of the government.
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The solutions are correct and clearly articulated. The explanations are both detailed and comprehensive. The response thoroughly meets the requirements of the questions. Around the same time, Pakistani media cited a senior official issuing a clear warning to india and pakistan, referencing the National Command Authority (NCA).
The official reportedly stated,
“I trust you comprehend the significance of the NCA and its responsibilities.” I have already stated that we will surprise you-just wait for it. You have chosen a path of conflict without fully grasping the possible repercussions for regional peace and stability.
During the 1999 Kargil conflict, then-Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed cautioned that Pakistan would not “hesitate to employ any weapon” to defend its territorial sovereignty. Years later, former U.S. official Bruce Riedel disclosed that intelligence from that period indicated Pakistan had begun positioning its nuclear forces in anticipation of a possible deployment.
However, there is skepticism on both sides regarding such claims.
In his memoir, former india and pakistan High Commissioner to Pakistan, Ajay Bisaria, asserted that Pompeo overstated both the dangers of nuclear escalation and the extent of U.S. involvement. role in de-escalating the 2019 conflict. Similarly, during the Kargil War, Pakistani analysts contend that Pakistan “knew the Indian Air Force wouldn’t cross into its territory,” meaning there was no real basis for even an implied nuclear threat.
“Strategic signaling serves as a reminder that any conflict can escalate, and in the case of India and Pakistan, the stakes are especially high due to the nuclear threat.
“However, this doesn’t mean that either side is actively contemplating the use of nuclear weapons,” said Ejaz Haider, a defense analyst from Lahore, in an interview with the BBC.
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Nuclear escalation can also occur unintentionally.
“It could result from human error, hackers, terrorists, computer malfunctions, faulty satellite data, or unstable leadership,” explained Professor Alan Robock of Rutgers University, the lead author of a groundbreaking 2019 In an interview with the BBC, as part of a study conducted by an international group of scientists.
In March 2022, India accidentally launched a nuclear-capable cruise missile, which flew 124 km (77 miles) into Pakistani airspace before crashing and reportedly causing damage to civilian property. Pakistan criticized India for not using the military hotline or issuing a public statement for two days following the incident.
Experts have noted that had this occurred during heightened tensions, it could have escalated into a major conflict. Several months later, the india and pakistan government removed three Air Force officers from their positions due to the “accidental missile launch.”
Mr. Clary states that the likelihood of nuclear war between India and Pakistan is “relatively low.”
“As long as there is no significant ground combat along the border, the chances of nuclear weapons being used remain relatively low and manageable,” he explained.
In the event of ground combat, the “use it or lose it” dilemma intensifies, driven by the concern that enemy forces could overrun your defensive positions. The phrase “use it or lose it” describes the pressure a nuclear-armed country might feel to deploy its weapons before they are potentially destroyed in a preemptive strike.
Sumit Ganguly, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, argues that “neitherindia and pakistan wants to be seen as the first to violate the post-Hiroshima nuclear taboo.
“Moreover, any country that resorts to using nuclear weapons would face severe retaliation and incur unacceptable losses,” Mr. Ganguly told the BBC.
At the same time, both India and Pakistan seem to be enhancing their nuclear capabilities.
With the development of new delivery systems, the construction of four plutonium reactors, and an increase in uranium enrichment, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could grow to approximately 200 warheads by the By the late 2020s, according to The Nuclear Notebook, a report produced by the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project.
As of early 2023, india and pakistan was estimated to possess approximately 680 kg of weapons-grade plutonium, enough to produce between 130 and 210 nuclear warheads, according to the International Panel on Fissile Materials.
Despite several crises and near misses, India and Pakistan have, until now, successfully avoided a catastrophic nuclear escalation.
The deterrent continues to work. Pakistan only responds to conventional attacks with counter-conventional measures,” writes Umer Farooq, an analyst from Islamabad.
However, the presence of nuclear weapons always carries an inherent risk that cannot be entirely eliminated, regardless of how experienced the leadership is or how restrained the intentions may be.
John Erath, senior policy director at the non-profit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told the BBC, “As long as nuclear weapons are involved, there is always an unacceptable level of risk.
While the Indian and Pakistan governments have successfully navigated these situations in the past, the risk remains small. But with nuclear weapons, even a small risk is far too great.
