India Alerts Pakistan About Possible Flooding Under Indus Waters Treaty After Months of Silence
ISLAMABAD: In a rare move since the May military confrontation, India has reached out to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to share advance flood information, official sources confirmed early Monday.
Sources revealed that New Delhi alerted Islamabad to the risk of a major flood in the Tawi River near Jammu
The Indian High Commission in Islamabad conveyed the alert on the morning of Sunday, August 24, marking the first significant communication of its kind since the Pakistan-India conflict in May, sources noted.
Following India’s warning, Pakistani authorities promptly issued alerts based on the information provided, officials confirmed.
The development comes months after India suspended IWT talks with Pakistan in the wake of the April incident in Pahalgam, IIOJK, where 26 people were killed.
India-Pakistan Tensions Rise Over Indus Waters Treaty Amid Accusations and Water Disputes
New Delhi claims Islamabad was behind a deadly militant attack — charges that Pakistan firmly rejects.
Citing these claims, India launched a military offensive in May, resulting in the heaviest fighting between the two nations in decades before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire ended hostilities.
Both nuclear-armed neighbors have long disagreed over the use of river waters flowing from India into Pakistan’s Indus River basin. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), mediated by the World Bank and signed in September 1960, governs this water-sharing arrangement.
Under the treaty:
India has authority over the three eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi
Pakistan has rights to the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
The treaty includes dispute resolution mechanisms and explicitly prohibits unilateral suspension or termination by either country.
India’s Position on the IWT
Despite the treaty surviving three wars and multiple conflicts, tensions have escalated. On May 16, Reuters reported that Delhi is considering projects that could reduce water flow into from its allocated rivers.
India has also declared it will keep the treaty in abeyance unless ends its alleged support for cross-border terrorism.
Pakistan’s Concerns Over Water Security
Islamabad warns that any attempt to block or divert water supply would be seen as an “act of war.”
Pakistan heavily depends on the Indus River system for hydropower and agriculture, with 80% of its irrigated farmland relying on this water. It accuses India of unfair water diversion through the construction of dams and barrages upstream, which India denies.
Two recent hydropower projects—Kishanganga and Ratle—have intensified disputes.
Pakistan sought intervention by a neutral expert and arbitration court, while India claims these projects comply with the treaty and has demanded modifications to speed up project approvals.
How India’s Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Threatens Water Security and Agriculture
What Could the Suspension Change?
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is unlikely to cause an immediate drop in water flow to since India lacks the storage capacity to hold back large volumes. However, in early May, water levels at a key receiving point in temporarily fell by up to 90% after India began maintenance work on Indus projects.
Indian officials noted that the suspension allows New Delhi to halt data sharing on water releases from dams and barrages or on flood forecasts. India would also no longer be required to release minimum water levels during dry seasons, creating uncertainty for agriculture sector.
Pakistan’s Response to the Suspension
Pakistan maintains that the IWT is a binding international treaty brokered by the World Bank with no clause for unilateral suspension.
Ghasharib Shaokat, head of product at Agriculture Research, emphasized the treaty’s importance:
“It puts our agricultural future on shaky ground. Erratic water flows would hit irrigation-dependent crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane the hardest. Yields could fall, costs would rise, food prices could surge, and small-scale farmers would suffer the most.”
Similarly, Khalid Hussain Baath, chairman of a national farmers’ union, called India’s move an act of hostility:
“This is economic warfare. With climate change, low rainfall, and reduced snowmelt, water levels are already 20–25% lower than last year.”
Pakistan Secures Victory in The Hague
In June, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a Supplemental Award in the IWT dispute, siding with Pakistan.
In its statement, government reaffirmed its commitment to resolving water issues under the Indus Waters Treaty framework and urged for renewed diplomatic talks with India.
Arbitration Court Rules Against India’s Unilateral Actions on Indus Waters Treaty
The arbitration court has ruled that India’s unilateral actions cannot undermine the authority of either the Court of Arbitration or the Neutral Expert handling disputes under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
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A statement from the court read:
“The Court affirms its competence in light of recent developments, declaring that India’s unilateral steps cannot strip the Court or the Neutral Expert of their authority to adjudicate ongoing disputes.”
Following the ruling, urged India to immediately restore the normal functioning of the IWT and fully comply with its treaty obligations.
According to the Foreign Office (FO), the Supplemental Award,
announced on June 27, 2025, confirmed that the court retains full authority over disputes regarding the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects.
The Court of Arbitration delivered this verdict following India’s unilateral and unlawful move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty,” the Foreign Office noted, stressing the court’s continued commitment to conducting proceedings in a timely, fair, and efficient manner.
