Covid-19 vaccines Recommending everyone high-risk groups 2025-2026
As a CDC advisory panel gathered this week to evaluate guidance on who should receive the updated COVID -19 vaccine for the upcoming season, a new analysis released by leading researchers highlights the significant public health benefits of widespread vaccination recommendations.
Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has introduced major updates for this season’s COVID -19 vaccines, restricting authorization to adults aged 65 and older and to younger individuals considered at higher risk for severe illness.
On Friday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) voted in favor of recommending that anyone seeking the COVID -19 vaccine should first consult a healthcare professional. However, the panel rejected the idea of requiring a formal prescription for vaccination.
According to a study published Thursday in JAMA Network Open, scientific projection models from nine independent research teams suggest that maintaining a universal COVID -19 vaccination recommendation in the U.S. could potentially save thousands more lives compared to narrowing eligibility only to high-risk groups.
COVID -19 Vaccines
The researchers noted that while targeting vaccinations for people at highest risk-such as adults 65 and older and those with underlying health conditions-remains an important strategy, their scenario projections show that continuing to recommend updated COVID -19 vaccines for everyone could save thousands of additional lives. This benefit comes through both direct protection and the indirect effects of broader community immunity.
US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling
For the past five years, the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has produced nearly 20 rounds of projections to estimate the nation’s potential COVID -19 burden. Each research team develops its models with distinct assumptions, later combined into ensemble forecasts that explore six scenarios based on varying vaccine recommendations and levels of viral immune escape-including risks from emerging variants or waning immunity after infection or vaccination.
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This modeling has already played a key role in shaping US policy, such as extending the COVID -19 vaccine schedule to school-age children in 2021 and informing booster shot recommendations in fall 2022.
For the 2024-2025 season, researchers modeled multiple outcomes, ranging from a worst-case scenario with no vaccine recommendations combined with high immune escape to a best-case scenario featuring a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation paired with low immune escape.
2024-2025 COVID -19 Season
Researchers found that the scenario most closely aligned with how the 2024-2025 COVID -19 season unfolded involved high immune escape. In this model, the universal vaccine recommendation was projected to lower hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13%, preventing an estimated 104,000 hospitalizations and 9,000 fatalities nationwide.
The study noted that if COVID -19 vaccine recommendations were restricted only to high-risk groups, the impact would still be significant-projected to cut hospitalizations by 8% and deaths by 10%. However, maintaining a broader recommendation for all age groups was estimated to prevent an additional 28,000 hospitalizations and 2,000 deaths.
According to the study, adults aged 65 and older gain the greatest advantage under every vaccine scenario, receiving both direct protection and indirect benefits. With a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation, the burden on seniors could drop by an additional 3% to 4%, preventing roughly 11,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths in this age group.
US COVID-19
The researchers concluded that these results highlight the significant indirect benefits of universal vaccination and reinforce the importance of broad vaccine recommendations.
The Scenario Modeling Hub first released its projections for the 2024-2025 COVID -19 season in June 2024 to guide decision-making before the ACIP meeting.
While actual epidemiological trends varied from the initial assumptions-showing a higher burden in the summer and a lower impact in the winter-the projected death toll closely matched real-world data. Researchers said this consistency reinforced their confidence in the models’ “robust accuracy.”
COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations
The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub released its projections for the current season in June, offering a forecast that closely mirrors the patterns seen during the previous year.
Limiting updated Covid-19 vaccine recommendations to only high-risk individuals could help prevent about 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths. However, expanding the guidance to cover all age groups across the U.S. is projected to save an extra 1,000 lives and avert an additional 26,000 hospitalizations, according to the analysis.
In their executive summary, the researchers warned of a continued significant Covid-19 burden in the US. They emphasized that while all vaccination strategies are expected to lower disease impact, the greatest public health benefits will come from offering updated vaccines to all age groups.
COVID -19 Vaccine Guidance
The modeling data was not presented during ACIP’s June meeting, and there is currently no indication it will be shared at this week’s session, according to experts.
“We continue to provide our findings to the CDC and are working to make the results more accessible for a wider range of organizations involved in issuing COVID -19 vaccine guidance,” explained researcher Lessler.
